Iran has once again dominated the international security agenda by threatening to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane for global oil supplies, in retaliation for further international sanctions on Teheran over its nuclear programme.
We don’t know whether Iran is bluffing- Anthony Manduca
Analysts believe such a blockade could drive oil prices up by at least 50 per cent. It would also lead to global economic uncertainty, regional instability and a likely armed conflict with the West.
The Iranian government also responded to the new American and European sanctions by test-firing new missiles, announcing the production of its first nuclear-fuel rod and warning an American aircraft carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf.
It is quite evident that Iran is feeling the pressure of its increased international isolation, which is a good sign, but the dispute between Teheran and the West seems to be entering a dangerous new phase, which is obviously of concern.
The additional US and European sanctions come after a November report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which stated it had information indicating Iran has carried out tests “relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device”.
In its latest report on Iran, the IAEA’s toughest one so far, the UN nuclear watchdog says Teheran’s research includes computer models that could only be used to develop a nuclear bomb trigger.
The latest US sanctions, which came into effect on December 30, are the toughest American financial sanctions yet on Iran, and punish institutions that deal with the Iranian Central Bank.
The sanctions aim at forcing countries and companies to choose between doing business with Iran or with the US. The EU, on the other hand, has agreed to impose an embargo on Iranian oil which is set to take effect on January 30.
The EU is the second largest market for Iranian oil (after China) and nearly 20 per cent of Iranian crude exports are exported to the bloc, so such an embargo is likely to hurt the Iranian economy.
Over the years a number of sanctions – by the UN and EU, as well as bilateral sanctions by countries such as the US, UK, Switzerland, Japan, Australia and Canada – have been imposed on Iran in response to its lack of co-operation with the IAEA. So far, however, Iran has remained defiant and refused to change course over its nuclear programme, which it insists – contrary to all the evidence – is for peaceful civilian energy purposes.
These latest sanctions, however, will hurt Iran particularly hard, hence Teheran’s ferocious reaction to them. We don’t know whether Iran is bluffing when it says it will close the Strait of Hormuz in response to this latest round of sanctions – it would not be able to maintain a blockade for very long and the West would resort to military action in response – but the world can’t afford to be complacent over this matter.
Over the years, Iran, especially under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has been a source of regional instability, a supporter of terrorism and a threat to world peace. Iran controls Hizbollah in Lebanon, funds Hamas, opposes any type of peace talks between Palestinians and Israelis, threatens Israel’s existence, backs various Shi’ite militias in Iraq and Afghanistan and has even been accused of aiding Taliban (who are Sunni extremists) elements in Afghanistan.
Last October the US announced that an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador in Washington had been foiled. Had the plot succeeded, it would have probably led to war between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the global consequences would have been dire.
So Iran, therefore, is capable of committing many reckless and irresponsible acts, and could very well carry out its threat over the Strait of Hormuz.
How much internal support President Ahmadinejad has for such a dangerous course of action, among both the Iranian military and the country’s spiritual leaders, is another matter.
Meanwhile, should sanctions fail to persuade Iran to co-operate over its nuclear programme, the pressure will grow both in the US and Israel to go for a military option, which, of course, carries tremendous risks. Israel has warned that time is running out to stop the Iranians from developing a nuclear weapon, and experts believe Iran could be less than two years from conducting a nuclear test explosion.
I believe there will be no attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities this year, especially since there is a presidential election in the US, but military force might be used next year.
The economic and political consequences of such an attack would be grave, but not everyone in the Arab world would condemn it. A year ago, disclosures by Wikileaks of US diplomatic cables claimed Saudi King Abdullah has repeatedly urged the US to bomb Iran and destroy its nuclear programme.
• Hungary’s new constitutional amendments, which took effect on January 1, are a cause for concern and a threat to the country’s democracy. The legislative changes give the government sweeping influence over the media, the judiciary, the central bank and budget and audit committees. Electoral boundaries have been redrawn to favour the ruling party of Prime Minister Victor Orban.
These changes certainly present a huge challenge to the EU. While the EU is very strict about ensuring that new entrants to the bloc adhere to democratic norms and practices, there is no mechanism in place to prevent such countries from threatening democracy.
The EU should take this development very seriously, otherwise other member states with little history of democracy could be tempted to go down the same path.